Here is the first pass at the Heps predictions on Friday at Van Cortland. This should be a close one between Brown and Princeton. Last year just 9 points separated Navy , Princeton and Brown. DA Bears will be looking to avenge that 3rd place last year. Navy was a little bit tricky to predict, they beat Army a couple of weeks back, but I don't think Mentzer is back to his 24:46 2nd place form of last year. Army's Goff beat him by 20 seconds, Goff did a 25:00 at VCP earlier this year(Iona). So I really only have 1 meet for Navy. I made last year's heps easier difficulty (1.022) so it won't influence the results as much. Conrad's time is still based on last year's New Engl. time, but I think he's still improving and could be up there even further. The Harvard - Yale battle should be a good one , there currently 1 and 1 in battles this year. I don't have a lot on Columbia and Cornell either, but Kloos should be higher up (especially after an excellent spring 9:02? Steeple), but maybe injuries played a part. Please let me know what runners shouldn't be here.. Enjoy... don't Flame me.... its the computers fault... If I get some good feedback, I could put out another version..... The database, meet info, dual meet prediction is here: http://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/xcdb/ ....Patrick Hoffman Fake Heptagonal Meet based on a Database runners 1507, teams 169 races 23 1 37 BROWN97 2 40 PRINC97 3 73 DART97 4 131 NAVY97 5 188 HARV97 6 188 YALE97 7 198 CORNELL97 8 214 COLUM97 9 270 PENN97 VCP time Runners mt# r# tm# team tplc tscore 1 24:48 19 994 112 BARROCO, PRINC PRINC97 1 1 2 24:57 17 796 85 VETELINO, J BROWN97 1 2 3 25:00 17 799 85 PRINDIVILK, B BROWN97 2 5 4 25:03 19 995 112 KEAN, PRINC PRINC97 2 5 5 25:04 21 1480 168 MENTZER, JOHN NAVY97 1 5 6 25:07 17 795 85 WOODMAN, K. BROWN97 3 11 7 25:12 6 797 85 MCKIE, D BROWN97 4 18 8 25:14 13 996 112 SPENCE, PRINC PRINC97 3 13 9 25:15 17 40 8 PADILLA, RYAN DART97 1 9 10 25:15 9 28 8 CONRAD, DON DART97 2 19 11 25:19 17 22 8 PRUETT, PARKER DART97 3 30 12 25:24 17 38 8 SCHUMACHER, AARON DART97 4 42 13 25:27 19 1394 112 STUHLFAUT, ADAM PRINC97 4 26 14 25:27 19 997 112 BANKS, PRINC PRINC97 5 40 15 25:29 19 1395 14 FRESCURA, PAOLO PENN97 1 15 16 25:29 20 1411 158 KOPPENHAVER, WYETH CORNELL97 1 16 17 25:29 22 1485 168 PARBEL, PETER NAVY97 2 22 18 25:30 18 1379 149 GRANT, MICHAEL COLUM97 1 18 19 25:31 9 806 85 DAVEY, N BROWN97 5 37 20 25:32 1 21 7 MUOIO, SCOTT HARV97 1 20 21 25:32 17 803 85 SCHUERER, D BROWN97 6 37 22 25:32 19 999 112 FURMAN, PRINC PRINC97 6 40 23 25:34 6 800 85 TESTMAN, B BROWN97 7 37 24 25:35 21 1481 112 CARSON, JOHN PRINC97 7 40 25 25:36 20 1404 158 NOVAK, JOSH CORNELL97 2 41 26 25:37 18 1380 149 KLOOS, TOM COLUM97 2 44 27 25:38 13 44 9 KARAS, CHRIS YALE97 1 27 28 25:43 13 998 112 LASCELLES, PRINC PRINC97 8 40 29 25:44 1 27 9 TAYLOR, MATTHEW YALE97 2 56 30 25:44 13 65 7 MARTIN, DAVID HARV97 2 50 31 25:44 17 1286 8 NICKERSON, GEOFF DART97 5 73 32 25:48 13 29 9 ZEMEK, ALEX YALE97 3 88 33 25:48 17 48 8 WARDEN, SCOTT DART97 6 73 34 25:49 22 1501 168 NICHOLS, NAVY NAVY97 3 56 35 25:49 6 41 7 JOHNSON, JOSEPH HARV97 3 85 36 25:50 17 50 8 GERHART, JIM DART97 7 73 37 25:50 21 1482 168 MCKEON, SIMON NAVY97 4 93 38 25:50 22 1502 168 RYAN, NAVY NAVY97 5 131 39 25:51 21 1483 112 NIEDZIALEK, JUSTIN PRINC97 9 40 40 25:51 22 1503 168 COE, NAVY NAVY97 6 131 41 25:53 22 1489 168 BONNETTE, JONATHAN NAVY97 7 131 42 25:54 17 808 85 ROADHOUSE, Z BROWN97 8 37 43 25:55 21 1484 168 ADAMS, SAMUEL NAVY97 8 131 44 25:56 20 1407 158 WOODMANSEE, ZACH CORNELL97 3 85 45 25:57 1 35 8 JENSEN, GARRETT DART97 8 73 46 25:58 17 39 8 COHEN, MIKE DART97 9 73 47 25:58 22 1487 168 MAHON, BRENDAN NAVY97 9 131 48 26:00 13 814 9 HARRIS, M YALE97 4 136 49 26:00 9 852 85 BROWN, STEPHEN BROWN97 9 37 50 26:04 13 67 7 DESCHENES, GEOFFREY HARV97 4 135 51 26:05 1 93 14 PULITO, STEVE PENN97 2 66 52 26:06 13 66 9 SCHROEDEL, DAVID YALE97 5 188 53 26:07 13 49 7 EDWARDS, COLIN HARV97 5 188 54 26:10 18 1381 149 GIBBONS, JAON COLUM97 3 98 55 26:10 20 1419 158 MERWARTH, FRED CORNELL97 4 140 56 26:12 18 1382 149 ROSSI, AMERIGO COLUM97 4 154 57 26:15 1 43 7 TROMBLY, BRENDAN HARV97 6 188 58 26:18 19 1408 158 STELLINGWERFF, TRENT CORNELL97 5 198 59 26:19 13 68 7 BAKER, EDWARD HARV97 7 188 60 26:20 18 1383 149 NELSON, NOEL COLUM97 5 214 61 26:21 18 1384 149 WARREN, JEFF COLUM97 6 214 62 26:24 6 816 9 RACHE, J YALE97 6 188 63 26:25 1 97 14 HORROCKS, JOHN PENN97 3 129 64 26:25 21 63 9 RIELY, CHARLES YALE97 7 188 65 26:29 1 52 7 HATCH, CAMERON HARV97 8 188 66 26:30 20 1427 158 PETER, MAX CORNELL97 6 198 67 26:31 20 1428 158 MOYNIHAN, MATT CORNELL97 7 198 68 26:33 20 1430 158 SHERRY, DAN CORNELL97 8 198 69 26:33 21 1488 14 MCCOMMONS, AARON PENN97 4 198 70 26:35 21 1490 9 PFLUGFELDER, ALEX YALE97 8 188 71 26:41 18 1385 149 BIERSBACH, RAY COLUM97 7 214 72 26:44 1 102 14 BLODGETT, MATT PENN97 5 270 73 26:44 21 1491 158 RAFFA, RYAN CORNELL97 9 198 74 26:47 21 1492 14 PHILLIPS, MICHAEL PENN97 6 270 75 26:51 1 106 14 STENGLE, KEVIN PENN97 7 270 76 26:52 21 1493 14 GREENE, JASON PENN97 8 270 77 26:56 13 64 9 KAVANAUGH, MICHAEL YALE97 9 188 78 27:01 17 1296 7 TETREAULT, JOEL HARV97 9 188 79 27:07 1 110 14 GRANSHAW, MARK PENN97 9 270 80 27:19 21 1497 149 ENRIGHT, JOHN COLUM97 8 214 81 29:14 21 1500 149 BARNETTE, MICHAEL COLUM97 9 214 Races used for prediction runners 1507, teams 169 races 23 race number difficulty description 1 1.033 Iona Vanny 67 deg 9-27-97 meet1.txt 2 1.0 Codfish Franklin Park Boston 58deg 9-27-97 meet2.txt 3 1.04 Babson invite 58 deg? Babson College 10-4-97 meet3.txt 4 1.0 Pre NCAA Div III FP 10-4-97 meet4.txt 5 1.033 Griak Invite Les Bolstad golf St.Paul Minn 9-27-97 meet5.txt 6 1.063 Fordham Invite Van Cort. pk NY 85% 9-13-97 meet6.txt 7 1.01 FP BC,Uconn,Bates, UNH 9-12-97 hot? meet7.txt 8 1.04 Dartmouth Invite Hanover 9-13-97 meet8.txt 9 0.99 New Eng. 96 top 1-60 10-18-96 meet9.txt 10 1.0 Murray Keating 10-11-97 Orono Maine KEATM1.TXT 11 1.01 UVM,BU,ccsu,maine 9/20/97 at UVM 12 1.02 Nu,Brown Harvard at FP 9/19/97 Hot 80%? 13 1.00 HYP at FP cool 10/3/97 14 1.014 at Fairfield 10-5-97 15 1.033 Bantan Wickham Ct.? 10-4-97 16 1.013 Albany Invite 10-11-97 on Klindinst 14 secs slower 17 1.00 New Englands 10-17-97 at Franklin park 67? degrees sunny 18 1.033 Met invite at VCP 10-3-97 cool Columbia only 19 1.033 Ic4a at VCP 10-17-97 65 deg?? top 30 only 20 1.02 Bost XC fest. 9-20-97 80deg 21 1.02 96 heps at VCP 22 1.083 Navy at Army 10-17-97 based on Goff's time-iona