Re: Time-equivalence Model

David F. Cameron Model 

        I retrieved the top handful of times both at a variety
        of distances (400M to 50 Miles) at both the world level
        and U.S. level as data.
 
        I used statistical techniques (non-linear regression)
        to try to get a best fit.  (Got 7 different acceptable
        models)  I then tested these models on older data, and
        picked the one which seemed to do the best.  All math
        is in miles (american upbringing, sorry...)
 
    Valid distances: 400    0.249
                     600    0.373
                     800    0.497
                    1000    0.622
                    1500    0.933
                    Mile    1.000
                    2000    1.243
                    3000    1.864
                  2 Mile    2.000
                  3 Mile    3.000
                    5000    3.107
                  4 Mile    4.000
                  5 Mile    5.000
                   10000    6.215
                7.5 Mile    7.500
                   15000    9.323
                 10 Mile   10.000
                1/2 Mar.   13.109
                    Mar.   26.219
                50 Mile    50.000

   Next: Calculate fac.  (intime is your time in seconds, indist
                            is your time in miles from the above)
        fac = intime/((3600./(13.49681-.048865*indist+2.438936/
                         indist**0.7905))*indist)

   Finally use fac to calculate your time for the distance you
   want to compare it to (dist):
        time = fac*(3600./(13.49681-.048865*dist+2.438936/dist**0.7905))*dist


   Example:
     Suppose you ran a 1:55 800M, and you want the 1500M equivalent.
       indist=0.497, intime=115.0  -->  fac=1.138
 
     Now, to calculate time for 1500:
       fac=1.138, dist=0.933 --> time=238.48

     Convert to min/sec:  3:58.48 would be the equiv. 1500 meter time

Sample Output:


                                                                    Time/Dist Chart

    Factor    400     600     800    1000    1500    Mile    2000   3000  2Mil  3Mil  5000  4Mil  5Mil   10K   7.5Mi      15K     10Mi   1/2Mar      Mar     50M

      0.98  0:42.2  1:10.0  1:39.0  2:08.9  3:25.3  3:42.0  4:43.1  7:21  7:56 12:16 12:44 16:39 21:05 26:32  0:32:21  0:40:43  0:43:52  0:58:30  2:04:19  4:23:20
      0.99  0:42.6  1:10.7  1:40.0  2:10.2  3:27.4  3:44.3  4:45.9  7:25  8:01 12:23 12:52 16:49 21:18 26:48  0:32:41  0:41:08  0:44:19  0:59:06  2:05:35  4:26:01
      1.00  0:43.0  1:11.4  1:41.0  2:11.5  3:29.5  3:46.6  4:48.8  7:30  8:06 12:31 12:59 17:00 21:31 27:05  0:33:01  0:41:33  0:44:45  0:59:42  2:06:51  4:28:42
      1.01  0:43.5  1:12.1  1:42.0  2:12.9  3:31.6  3:48.8  4:51.7  7:34  8:11 12:38 13:07 17:10 21:44 27:21  0:33:21  0:41:58  0:45:12  1:00:18  2:08:08  4:31:24
      1.02  0:43.9  1:12.8  1:43.0  2:14.2  3:33.7  3:51.1  4:54.6  7:39  8:15 12:46 13:15 17:20 21:57 27:37  0:33:41  0:42:23  0:45:39  1:00:53  2:09:24  4:34:05

      1.03  0:44.3  1:13.5  1:44.0  2:15.5  3:35.8  3:53.4  4:57.5  7:43  8:20 12:53 13:23 17:30 22:10 27:53  0:34:00  0:42:48  0:46:06  1:01:29  2:10:40  4:36:46
      1.04  0:44.8  1:14.2  1:45.0  2:16.8  3:37.9  3:55.6  5:00.4  7:48  8:25 13:01 13:31 17:40 22:23 28:10  0:34:20  0:43:13  0:46:33  1:02:05  2:11:56  4:39:27
      1.05  0:45.2  1:15.0  1:46.0  2:18.1  3:40.0  3:57.9  5:03.3  7:52  8:30 13:08 13:38 17:51 22:36 28:26  0:34:40  0:43:38  0:47:00  1:02:41  2:13:12  4:42:09
      1.06  0:45.6  1:15.7  1:47.0  2:19.4  3:42.1  4:00.1  5:06.2  7:57  8:35 13:16 13:46 18:01 22:49 28:42  0:35:00  0:44:03  0:47:27  1:03:17  2:14:28  4:44:50
      1.07  0:46.1  1:16.4  1:48.0  2:20.8  3:44.2  4:02.4  5:09.1  8:02  8:40 13:23 13:54 18:11 23:02 28:58  0:35:20  0:44:28  0:47:53  1:03:52  2:15:44  4:47:31

      1.08  0:46.5  1:17.1  1:49.1  2:22.1  3:46.3  4:04.7  5:11.9  8:06  8:45 13:31 14:02 18:21 23:14 29:15  0:35:39  0:44:53  0:48:20  1:04:28  2:17:00  4:50:12
      1.09  0:46.9  1:17.8  1:50.1  2:23.4  3:48.4  4:06.9  5:14.8  8:11  8:49 13:39 14:10 18:31 23:27 29:31  0:35:59  0:45:18  0:48:47  1:05:04  2:18:16  4:52:53
      1.10  0:47.3  1:18.5  1:51.1  2:24.7  3:50.5  4:09.2  5:17.7  8:15  8:54 13:46 14:17 18:42 23:40 29:47  0:36:19  0:45:43  0:49:14  1:05:40  2:19:33  4:55:35
      1.11  0:47.8  1:19.2  1:52.1  2:26.0  3:52.6  4:11.5  5:20.6  8:20  8:59 13:54 14:25 18:52 23:53 30:03  0:36:39  0:46:08  0:49:41  1:06:16  2:20:49  4:58:16
      1.12  0:48.2  1:20.0  1:53.1  2:27.3  3:54.7  4:13.7  5:23.5  8:24  9:04 14:01 14:33 19:02 24:06 30:20  0:36:59  0:46:32  0:50:08  1:06:52  2:22:05  5:00:57

      1.13  0:48.6  1:20.7  1:54.1  2:28.6  3:56.8  4:16.0  5:26.4  8:29  9:09 14:09 14:41 19:12 24:19 30:36  0:37:19  0:46:57  0:50:35  1:07:27  2:23:21  5:03:38
      1.14  0:49.1  1:21.4  1:55.1  2:30.0  3:58.9  4:18.3  5:29.3  8:33  9:14 14:16 14:49 19:22 24:32 30:52  0:37:38  0:47:22  0:51:01  1:08:03  2:24:37  5:06:20
      1.15  0:49.5  1:22.1  1:56.1  2:31.3  4:00.9  4:20.5  5:32.2  8:38  9:19 14:24 14:56 19:33 24:45 31:08  0:37:58  0:47:47  0:51:28  1:08:39  2:25:53  5:09:01
      1.16  0:49.9  1:22.8  1:57.1  2:32.6  4:03.0  4:22.8  5:35.1  8:42  9:23 14:31 15:04 19:43 24:58 31:25  0:38:18  0:48:12  0:51:55  1:09:15  2:27:09  5:11:42
      1.17  0:50.4  1:23.5  1:58.1  2:33.9  4:05.1  4:25.1  5:37.9  8:47  9:28 14:39 15:12 19:53 25:11 31:41  0:38:38  0:48:37  0:52:22  1:09:51  2:28:25  5:14:23

      1.18  0:50.8  1:24.2  1:59.2  2:35.2  4:07.2  4:27.3  5:40.8  8:51  9:33 14:46 15:20 20:03 25:24 31:57  0:38:58  0:49:02  0:52:49  1:10:26  2:29:42  5:17:04
      1.19  0:51.2  1:25.0  2:00.2  2:36.5  4:09.3  4:29.6  5:43.7  8:56  9:38 14:54 15:28 20:13 25:37 32:13  0:39:17  0:49:27  0:53:16  1:11:02  2:30:58  5:19:46
      1.20  0:51.7  1:25.7  2:01.2  2:37.9  4:11.4  4:31.9  5:46.6  9:00  9:43 15:01 15:35 20:24 25:49 32:30  0:39:37  0:49:52  0:53:43  1:11:38  2:32:14  5:22:27
      1.21  0:52.1  1:26.4  2:02.2  2:39.2  4:13.5  4:34.1  5:49.5  9:05  9:48 15:09 15:43 20:34 26:02 32:46  0:39:57  0:50:17  0:54:09  1:12:14  2:33:30  5:25:08
      1.22  0:52.5  1:27.1  2:03.2  2:40.5  4:15.6  4:36.4  5:52.4  9:09  9:53 15:16 15:51 20:44 26:15 33:02  0:40:17  0:50:42  0:54:36  1:12:50  2:34:46  5:27:49

      1.23  0:52.9  1:27.8  2:04.2  2:41.8  4:17.7  4:38.7  5:55.3  9:14  9:58 15:24 15:59 20:54 26:28 33:18  0:40:37  0:51:07  0:55:03  1:13:26  2:36:02  5:30:31
      1.24  0:53.4  1:28.5  2:05.2  2:43.1  4:19.8  4:40.9  5:58.2  9:18 10:02 15:31 16:07 21:04 26:41 33:35  0:40:57  0:51:32  0:55:30  1:14:01  2:37:18  5:33:12
      1.25  0:53.8  1:29.2  2:06.2  2:44.4  4:21.9  4:43.2  6:01.1  9:23 10:07 15:39 16:14 21:15 26:54 33:51  0:41:16  0:51:57  0:55:57  1:14:37  2:38:34  5:35:53
      1.26  0:54.2  1:30.0  2:07.2  2:45.8  4:24.0  4:45.5  6:03.9  9:27 10:12 15:46 16:22 21:25 27:07 34:07  0:41:36  0:52:22  0:56:24  1:15:13  2:39:50  5:38:34
      1.27  0:54.7  1:30.7  2:08.2  2:47.1  4:26.1  4:47.7  6:06.8  9:32 10:17 15:54 16:30 21:35 27:20 34:23  0:41:56  0:52:47  0:56:51  1:15:49  2:41:07  5:41:16

      1.28  0:55.1  1:31.4  2:09.3  2:48.4  4:28.2  4:50.0  6:09.7  9:36 10:22 16:01 16:38 21:45 27:33 34:40  0:42:16  0:53:11  0:57:17  1:16:25  2:42:23  5:43:57
      1.29  0:55.5  1:32.1  2:10.3  2:49.7  4:30.3  4:52.3  6:12.6  9:41 10:27 16:09 16:46 21:55 27:46 34:56  0:42:36  0:53:36  0:57:44  1:17:01  2:43:39  5:46:38
      1.30  0:56.0  1:32.8  2:11.3  2:51.0  4:32.4  4:54.5  6:15.5  9:45 10:32 16:16 16:53 22:06 27:59 35:12  0:42:55  0:54:01  0:58:11  1:17:36  2:44:55  5:49:19
      1.31  0:56.4  1:33.5  2:12.3  2:52.3  4:34.5  4:56.8  6:18.4  9:50 10:36 16:24 17:01 22:16 28:12 35:28  0:43:15  0:54:26  0:58:38  1:18:12  2:46:11  5:52:00
      1.32  0:56.8  1:34.2  2:13.3  2:53.7  4:36.6  4:59.1  6:21.3  9:54 10:41 16:31 17:09 22:26 28:24 35:45  0:43:35  0:54:51  0:59:05  1:18:48  2:47:27  5:54:42

      1.33  0:57.3  1:35.0  2:14.3  2:55.0  4:38.7  5:01.3  6:24.2  9:59 10:46 16:39 17:17 22:36 28:37 36:01  0:43:55  0:55:16  0:59:32  1:19:24  2:48:43  5:57:23
      1.34  0:57.7  1:35.7  2:15.3  2:56.3  4:40.8  5:03.6  6:27.1 10:03 10:51 16:46 17:25 22:46 28:50 36:17  0:44:15  0:55:41  0:59:59  1:20:00  2:49:59  6:00:04
      1.35  0:58.1  1:36.4  2:16.3  2:57.6  4:42.9  5:05.9  6:29.9 10:08 10:56 16:54 17:32 22:57 29:03 36:33  0:44:34  0:56:06  1:00:25  1:20:35  2:51:16  6:02:45
      1.36  0:58.5  1:37.1  2:17.3  2:58.9  4:45.0  5:08.1  6:32.8 10:12 11:01 17:01 17:40 23:07 29:16 36:50  0:44:54  0:56:31  1:00:52  1:21:11  2:52:32  6:05:27
      1.37  0:59.0  1:37.8  2:18.3  3:00.2  4:47.1  5:10.4  6:35.7 10:17 11:06 17:09 17:48 23:17 29:29 37:06  0:45:14  0:56:56  1:01:19  1:21:47  2:53:48  6:08:08

      1.38  0:59.4  1:38.5  2:19.4  3:01.5  4:49.1  5:12.7  6:38.6 10:21 11:10 17:16 17:56 23:27 29:42 37:22  0:45:34  0:57:21  1:01:46  1:22:23  2:55:04  6:10:49
      1.39  0:59.8  1:39.2  2:20.4  3:02.9  4:51.2  5:14.9  6:41.5 10:26 11:15 17:24 18:04 23:37 29:55 37:38  0:45:54  0:57:46  1:02:13  1:22:59  2:56:20  6:13:30
      1.40  1:00.3  1:40.0  2:21.4  3:04.2  4:53.3  5:17.2  6:44.4 10:30 11:20 17:31 18:11 23:48 30:08 37:55  0:46:14  0:58:11  1:02:40  1:23:35  2:57:36  6:16:12
      1.41  1:00.7  1:40.7  2:22.4  3:05.5  4:55.4  5:19.5  6:47.3 10:35 11:25 17:39 18:19 23:58 30:21 38:11  0:46:33  0:58:36  1:03:07  1:24:10  2:58:52  6:18:53
      1.42  1:01.1  1:41.4  2:23.4  3:06.8  4:57.5  5:21.7  6:50.2 10:39 11:30 17:46 18:27 24:08 30:34 38:27  0:46:53  0:59:01  1:03:33  1:24:46  3:00:08  6:21:34

      1.43  1:01.6  1:42.1  2:24.4  3:08.1  4:59.6  5:24.0  6:53.1 10:44 11:35 17:54 18:35 24:18 30:47 38:43  0:47:13  0:59:26  1:04:00  1:25:22  3:01:24  6:24:15
      1.44  1:02.0  1:42.8  2:25.4  3:09.4  5:01.7  5:26.3  6:55.9 10:48 11:40 18:01 18:43 24:28 30:59 39:00  0:47:33  0:59:50  1:04:27  1:25:58  3:02:41  6:26:56
      1.45  1:02.4  1:43.5  2:26.4  3:10.8  5:03.8  5:28.5  6:58.8 10:53 11:44 18:09 18:50 24:39 31:12 39:16  0:47:53  1:00:15  1:04:54  1:26:34  3:03:57  6:29:38
      1.46  1:02.9  1:44.2  2:27.4  3:12.1  5:05.9  5:30.8  7:01.7 10:57 11:49 18:17 18:58 24:49 31:25 39:32  0:48:12  1:00:40  1:05:21  1:27:10  3:05:13  6:32:19
      1.47  1:03.3  1:45.0  2:28.5  3:13.4  5:08.0  5:33.1  7:04.6 11:02 11:54 18:24 19:06 24:59 31:38 39:48  0:48:32  1:01:05  1:05:48  1:27:45  3:06:29  6:35:00

      1.48  1:03.7  1:45.7  2:29.5  3:14.7  5:10.1  5:35.3  7:07.5 11:06 11:59 18:32 19:14 25:09 31:51 40:05  0:48:52  1:01:30  1:06:15  1:28:21  3:07:45  6:37:41
      1.49  1:04.1  1:46.4  2:30.5  3:16.0  5:12.2  5:37.6  7:10.4 11:11 12:04 18:39 19:22 25:19 32:04 40:21  0:49:12  1:01:55  1:06:42  1:28:57  3:09:01  6:40:23
      1.50  1:04.6  1:47.1  2:31.5  3:17.3  5:14.3  5:39.9  7:13.3 11:15 12:09 18:47 19:29 25:30 32:17 40:37  0:49:32  1:02:20  1:07:08  1:29:33  3:10:17  6:43:04
      1.51  1:05.0  1:47.8  2:32.5  3:18.7  5:16.4  5:42.1  7:16.2 11:20 12:14 18:54 19:37 25:40 32:30 40:53  0:49:52  1:02:45  1:07:35  1:30:09  3:11:33  6:45:45
      1.52  1:05.4  1:48.5  2:33.5  3:20.0  5:18.5  5:44.4  7:19.1 11:24 12:19 19:02 19:45 25:50 32:43 41:10  0:50:11  1:03:10  1:08:02  1:30:44  3:12:50  6:48:26

      1.53  1:05.9  1:49.2  2:34.5  3:21.3  5:20.6  5:46.7  7:21.9 11:29 12:23 19:09 19:53 26:00 32:56 41:26  0:50:31  1:03:35  1:08:29  1:31:20  3:14:06  6:51:07
      1.54  1:06.3  1:50.0  2:35.5  3:22.6  5:22.7  5:48.9  7:24.8 11:33 12:28 19:17 20:01 26:10 33:09 41:42  0:50:51  1:04:00  1:08:56  1:31:56  3:15:22  6:53:49
      1.55  1:06.7  1:50.7  2:36.5  3:23.9  5:24.8  5:51.2  7:27.7 11:38 12:33 19:24 20:08 26:21 33:22 41:58  0:51:11  1:04:25  1:09:23  1:32:32  3:16:38  6:56:30
      1.56  1:07.2  1:51.4  2:37.5  3:25.2  5:26.9  5:53.4  7:30.6 11:42 12:38 19:32 20:16 26:31 33:34 42:15  0:51:31  1:04:50  1:09:50  1:33:08  3:17:54  6:59:11
      1.57  1:07.6  1:52.1  2:38.6  3:26.5  5:29.0  5:55.7  7:33.5 11:47 12:43 19:39 20:24 26:41 33:47 42:31  0:51:50  1:05:15  1:10:16  1:33:44  3:19:10  7:01:52
1

                                                                    Time/Dist Chart

    Factor    400     600     800    1000    1500    Mile    2000   3000  2Mil  3Mil  5000  4Mil  5Mil   10K   7.5Mi      15K     10Mi   1/2Mar      Mar     50M

      1.58  1:08.0  1:52.8  2:39.6  3:27.9  5:31.1  5:58.0  7:36.4 11:51 12:48 19:47 20:32 26:51 34:00 42:47  0:52:10  1:05:40  1:10:43  1:34:19  3:20:26  7:04:34
      1.59  1:08.5  1:53.5  2:40.6  3:29.2  5:33.2  6:00.2  7:39.3 11:56 12:53 19:54 20:40 27:01 34:13 43:03  0:52:30  1:06:05  1:11:10  1:34:55  3:21:42  7:07:15
      1.60  1:08.9  1:54.3  2:41.6  3:30.5  5:35.3  6:02.5  7:42.2 12:00 12:57 20:02 20:47 27:12 34:26 43:20  0:52:50  1:06:29  1:11:37  1:35:31  3:22:59  7:09:56
      1.61  1:09.3  1:55.0  2:42.6  3:31.8  5:37.3  6:04.8  7:45.1 12:05 13:02 20:09 20:55 27:22 34:39 43:36  0:53:10  1:06:54  1:12:04  1:36:07  3:24:15  7:12:37
      1.62  1:09.8  1:55.7  2:43.6  3:33.1  5:39.4  6:07.0  7:47.9 12:09 13:07 20:17 21:03 27:32 34:52 43:52  0:53:29  1:07:19  1:12:31  1:36:43  3:25:31  7:15:19

      1.63  1:10.2  1:56.4  2:44.6  3:34.4  5:41.5  6:09.3  7:50.8 12:14 13:12 20:24 21:11 27:42 35:05 44:08  0:53:49  1:07:44  1:12:58  1:37:18  3:26:47  7:18:00
      1.64  1:10.6  1:57.1  2:45.6  3:35.8  5:43.6  6:11.6  7:53.7 12:18 13:17 20:32 21:19 27:52 35:18 44:25  0:54:09  1:08:09  1:13:24  1:37:54  3:28:03  7:20:41
      1.65  1:11.0  1:57.8  2:46.6  3:37.1  5:45.7  6:13.8  7:56.6 12:23 13:22 20:39 21:26 28:03 35:31 44:41  0:54:29  1:08:34  1:13:51  1:38:30  3:29:19  7:23:22
      1.66  1:11.5  1:58.5  2:47.6  3:38.4  5:47.8  6:16.1  7:59.5 12:27 13:27 20:47 21:34 28:13 35:44 44:57  0:54:49  1:08:59  1:14:18  1:39:06  3:30:35  7:26:03
      1.67  1:11.9  1:59.3  2:48.7  3:39.7  5:49.9  6:18.4  8:02.4 12:32 13:31 20:54 21:42 28:23 35:57 45:13  0:55:09  1:09:24  1:14:45  1:39:42  3:31:51  7:28:45

      1.68  1:12.3  2:00.0  2:49.7  3:41.0  5:52.0  6:20.6  8:05.3 12:36 13:36 21:02 21:50 28:33 36:09 45:30  0:55:28  1:09:49  1:15:12  1:40:18  3:33:07  7:31:26
      1.69  1:12.8  2:00.7  2:50.7  3:42.3  5:54.1  6:22.9  8:08.2 12:41 13:41 21:09 21:58 28:43 36:22 45:46  0:55:48  1:10:14  1:15:39  1:40:53  3:34:24  7:34:07
      1.70  1:13.2  2:01.4  2:51.7  3:43.7  5:56.2  6:25.2  8:11.1 12:45 13:46 21:17 22:05 28:54 36:35 46:02  0:56:08  1:10:39  1:16:06  1:41:29  3:35:40  7:36:48
      1.71  1:13.6  2:02.1  2:52.7  3:45.0  5:58.3  6:27.4  8:13.9 12:50 13:51 21:24 22:13 29:04 36:48 46:18  0:56:28  1:11:04  1:16:32  1:42:05  3:36:56  7:39:30
      1.72  1:14.1  2:02.8  2:53.7  3:46.3  6:00.4  6:29.7  8:16.8 12:54 13:56 21:32 22:21 29:14 37:01 46:35  0:56:48  1:11:29  1:16:59  1:42:41  3:38:12  7:42:11

      1.73  1:14.5  2:03.5  2:54.7  3:47.6  6:02.5  6:32.0  8:19.7 12:59 14:01 21:39 22:29 29:24 37:14 46:51  0:57:07  1:11:54  1:17:26  1:43:17  3:39:28  7:44:52
      1.74  1:14.9  2:04.3  2:55.7  3:48.9  6:04.6  6:34.2  8:22.6 13:03 14:05 21:47 22:37 29:34 37:27 47:07  0:57:27  1:12:19  1:17:53  1:43:53  3:40:44  7:47:33
      1.75  1:15.4  2:05.0  2:56.7  3:50.2  6:06.7  6:36.5  8:25.5 13:08 14:10 21:54 22:44 29:45 37:40 47:23  0:57:47  1:12:44  1:18:20  1:44:28  3:42:00  7:50:15
      1.76  1:15.8  2:05.7  2:57.7  3:51.6  6:08.8  6:38.8  8:28.4 13:12 14:15 22:02 22:52 29:55 37:53 47:40  0:58:07  1:13:08  1:18:47  1:45:04  3:43:16  7:52:56
      1.77  1:16.2  2:06.4  2:58.8  3:52.9  6:10.9  6:41.0  8:31.3 13:17 14:20 22:09 23:00 30:05 38:06 47:56  0:58:27  1:13:33  1:19:14  1:45:40  3:44:33  7:55:37

      1.78  1:16.6  2:07.1  2:59.8  3:54.2  6:13.0  6:43.3  8:34.2 13:21 14:25 22:17 23:08 30:15 38:19 48:12  0:58:47  1:13:58  1:19:40  1:46:16  3:45:49  7:58:18
      1.79  1:17.1  2:07.8  3:00.8  3:55.5  6:15.1  6:45.6  8:37.1 13:26 14:30 22:24 23:16 30:25 38:32 48:28  0:59:06  1:14:23  1:20:07  1:46:52  3:47:05  8:00:59
      1.80  1:17.5  2:08.5  3:01.8  3:56.8  6:17.2  6:47.8  8:39.9 13:30 14:35 22:32 23:23 30:36 38:44 48:45  0:59:26  1:14:48  1:20:34  1:47:27  3:48:21  8:03:41
      1.81  1:17.9  2:09.3  3:02.8  3:58.1  6:19.3  6:50.1  8:42.8 13:35 14:39 22:39 23:31 30:46 38:57 49:01  0:59:46  1:15:13  1:21:01  1:48:03  3:49:37  8:06:22
      1.82  1:18.4  2:10.0  3:03.8  3:59.4  6:21.4  6:52.4  8:45.7 13:39 14:44 22:47 23:39 30:56 39:10 49:17  1:00:06  1:15:38  1:21:28  1:48:39  3:50:53  8:09:03

      1.83  1:18.8  2:10.7  3:04.8  4:00.8  6:23.5  6:54.6  8:48.6 13:44 14:49 22:55 23:47 31:06 39:23 49:33  1:00:26  1:16:03  1:21:55  1:49:15  3:52:09  8:11:44
      1.84  1:19.2  2:11.4  3:05.8  4:02.1  6:25.5  6:56.9  8:51.5 13:48 14:54 23:02 23:55 31:16 39:36 49:50  1:00:45  1:16:28  1:22:22  1:49:51  3:53:25  8:14:26
      1.85  1:19.7  2:12.1  3:06.8  4:03.4  6:27.6  6:59.2  8:54.4 13:53 14:59 23:10 24:02 31:27 39:49 50:06  1:01:05  1:16:53  1:22:48  1:50:27  3:54:41  8:17:07
      1.86  1:20.1  2:12.8  3:07.8  4:04.7  6:29.7  7:01.4  8:57.3 13:57 15:04 23:17 24:10 31:37 40:02 50:22  1:01:25  1:17:18  1:23:15  1:51:02  3:55:58  8:19:48
      1.87  1:20.5  2:13.5  3:08.9  4:06.0  6:31.8  7:03.7  9:00.2 14:02 15:09 23:25 24:18 31:47 40:15 50:38  1:01:45  1:17:43  1:23:42  1:51:38  3:57:14  8:22:29

      1.88  1:21.0  2:14.3  3:09.9  4:07.3  6:33.9  7:06.0  9:03.1 14:06 15:14 23:32 24:26 31:57 40:28 50:55  1:02:05  1:18:08  1:24:09  1:52:14  3:58:30  8:25:10
      1.89  1:21.4  2:15.0  3:10.9  4:08.7  6:36.0  7:08.2  9:05.9 14:11 15:18 23:40 24:34 32:07 40:41 51:11  1:02:24  1:18:33  1:24:36  1:52:50  3:59:46  8:27:52
      1.90  1:21.8  2:15.7  3:11.9  4:10.0  6:38.1  7:10.5  9:08.8 14:15 15:23 23:47 24:41 32:18 40:54 51:27  1:02:44  1:18:58  1:25:03  1:53:26  4:01:02  8:30:33
      1.91  1:22.2  2:16.4  3:12.9  4:11.3  6:40.2  7:12.8  9:11.7 14:20 15:28 23:55 24:49 32:28 41:07 51:43  1:03:04  1:19:23  1:25:30  1:54:01  4:02:18  8:33:14
      1.92  1:22.7  2:17.1  3:13.9  4:12.6  6:42.3  7:15.0  9:14.6 14:24 15:33 24:02 24:57 32:38 41:19 52:00  1:03:24  1:19:47  1:25:56  1:54:37  4:03:34  8:35:55

      1.93  1:23.1  2:17.8  3:14.9  4:13.9  6:44.4  7:17.3  9:17.5 14:29 15:38 24:10 25:05 32:48 41:32 52:16  1:03:44  1:20:12  1:26:23  1:55:13  4:04:50  8:38:37
      1.94  1:23.5  2:18.5  3:15.9  4:15.2  6:46.5  7:19.6  9:20.4 14:33 15:43 24:17 25:13 32:58 41:45 52:32  1:04:04  1:20:37  1:26:50  1:55:49  4:06:07  8:41:18
      1.95  1:24.0  2:19.3  3:16.9  4:16.6  6:48.6  7:21.8  9:23.3 14:38 15:48 24:25 25:20 33:09 41:58 52:48  1:04:23  1:21:02  1:27:17  1:56:25  4:07:23  8:43:59
      1.96  1:24.4  2:20.0  3:18.0  4:17.9  6:50.7  7:24.1  9:26.2 14:42 15:52 24:32 25:28 33:19 42:11 53:05  1:04:43  1:21:27  1:27:44  1:57:01  4:08:39  8:46:40
      1.97  1:24.8  2:20.7  3:19.0  4:19.2  6:52.8  7:26.4  9:29.1 14:47 15:57 24:40 25:36 33:29 42:24 53:21  1:05:03  1:21:52  1:28:11  1:57:36  4:09:55  8:49:22

      1.98  1:25.3  2:21.4  3:20.0  4:20.5  6:54.9  7:28.6  9:31.9 14:51 16:02 24:47 25:44 33:39 42:37 53:37  1:05:23  1:22:17  1:28:38  1:58:12  4:11:11  8:52:03
      1.99  1:25.7  2:22.1  3:21.0  4:21.8  6:57.0  7:30.9  9:34.8 14:56 16:07 24:55 25:52 33:49 42:50 53:53  1:05:43  1:22:42  1:29:04  1:58:48  4:12:27  8:54:44
      2.00  1:26.1  2:22.8  3:22.0  4:23.1  6:59.1  7:33.2  9:37.7 15:00 16:12 25:02 25:59 34:00 43:03 54:10  1:06:02  1:23:07  1:29:31  1:59:24  4:13:43  8:57:25
      2.01  1:26.6  2:23.5  3:23.0  4:24.4  7:01.2  7:35.4  9:40.6 15:05 16:17 25:10 26:07 34:10 43:16 54:26  1:06:22  1:23:32  1:29:58  2:00:00  4:14:59  9:00:06
      2.02  1:27.0  2:24.3  3:24.0  4:25.8  7:03.3  7:37.7  9:43.5 15:09 16:22 25:17 26:15 34:20 43:29 54:42  1:06:42  1:23:57  1:30:25  2:00:36  4:16:16  9:02:48

      2.03  1:27.4  2:25.0  3:25.0  4:27.1  7:05.4  7:40.0  9:46.4 15:14 16:26 25:25 26:23 34:30 43:42 54:58  1:07:02  1:24:22  1:30:52  2:01:11  4:17:32  9:05:29
      2.04  1:27.8  2:25.7  3:26.0  4:28.4  7:07.5  7:42.2  9:49.3 15:18 16:31 25:32 26:31 34:40 43:54 55:15  1:07:22  1:24:47  1:31:19  2:01:47  4:18:48  9:08:10
      2.05  1:28.3  2:26.4  3:27.0  4:29.7  7:09.6  7:44.5  9:52.2 15:23 16:36 25:40 26:38 34:51 44:07 55:31  1:07:41  1:25:12  1:31:46  2:02:23  4:20:04  9:10:51
      2.06  1:28.7  2:27.1  3:28.1  4:31.0  7:11.7  7:46.8  9:55.1 15:27 16:41 25:47 26:46 35:01 44:20 55:47  1:08:01  1:25:37  1:32:12  2:02:59  4:21:20  9:13:33
      2.07  1:29.1  2:27.8  3:29.1  4:32.3  7:13.7  7:49.0  9:57.9 15:32 16:46 25:55 26:54 35:11 44:33 56:03  1:08:21  1:26:02  1:32:39  2:03:35  4:22:36  9:16:14

      2.08  1:29.6  2:28.5  3:30.1  4:33.7  7:15.8  7:51.3 10:00.8 15:36 16:51 26:02 27:02 35:21 44:46 56:20  1:08:41  1:26:26  1:33:06  2:04:10  4:23:52  9:18:55
      2.09  1:30.0  2:29.3  3:31.1  4:35.0  7:17.9  7:53.5 10:03.7 15:41 16:56 26:10 27:10 35:31 44:59 56:36  1:09:01  1:26:51  1:33:33  2:04:46  4:25:08  9:21:36
      2.10  1:30.4  2:30.0  3:32.1  4:36.3  7:20.0  7:55.8 10:06.6 15:45 17:00 26:17 27:17 35:42 45:12 56:52  1:09:21  1:27:16  1:34:00  2:05:22  4:26:24  9:24:18
      2.11  1:30.9  2:30.7  3:33.1  4:37.6  7:22.1  7:58.1 10:09.5 15:50 17:05 26:25 27:25 35:52 45:25 57:08  1:09:40  1:27:41  1:34:27  2:05:58  4:27:41  9:26:59
      2.12  1:31.3  2:31.4  3:34.1  4:38.9  7:24.2  8:00.3 10:12.4 15:54 17:10 26:32 27:33 36:02 45:38 57:25  1:10:00  1:28:06  1:34:54  2:06:34  4:28:57  9:29:40

      2.13  1:31.7  2:32.1  3:35.1  4:40.2  7:26.3  8:02.6 10:15.3 15:59 17:15 26:40 27:41 36:12 45:51 57:41  1:10:20  1:28:31  1:35:20  2:07:10  4:30:13  9:32:21
      2.14  1:32.2  2:32.8  3:36.1  4:41.6  7:28.4  8:04.9 10:18.2 16:04 17:20 26:47 27:49 36:22 46:04 57:57  1:10:40  1:28:56  1:35:47  2:07:45  4:31:29  9:35:02
      2.15  1:32.6  2:33.5  3:37.1  4:42.9  7:30.5  8:07.1 10:21.1 16:08 17:25 26:55 27:56 36:33 46:17 58:13  1:11:00  1:29:21  1:36:14  2:08:21  4:32:45  9:37:44
      2.16  1:33.0  2:34.3  3:38.2  4:44.2  7:32.6  8:09.4 10:23.9 16:13 17:30 27:02 28:04 36:43 46:29 58:30  1:11:19  1:29:46  1:36:41  2:08:57  4:34:01  9:40:25
      2.17  1:33.4  2:35.0  3:39.2  4:45.5  7:34.7  8:11.7 10:26.8 16:17 17:35 27:10 28:12 36:53 46:42 58:46  1:11:39  1:30:11  1:37:08  2:09:33  4:35:17  9:43:06

Enjoy, good luck, and if you use, please give credit where
credit is due!

 ----------------------------------------------------------------
|  David F. Cameron                        Statistical Services  |
|  dfc@ecliptic.stat.nielsen.com           A. C. Nielsen Co.     |
|  voice: (708) 605-5726                   150 N. Martingale Rd  |
|  fax:   (708) 605-2557                   Schaumburg, IL 60195  |
 ----------------------------------------------------------------
More about Cameron Model

Subject: 
       cameron's
   Date: 
       Tue, 30 Jun 1998 10:33:33 -0400
   From: 
       Patrick Hoffman 
    To: 
       phoffman@cs.uml.edu




Date: Tue, 16 Jun 1998 23:55:44 -0500
From: Dave Cameron 
Subject: Re: t-and-f: Performance Model battles - New Hungariam Tables

OK, I got mentioned by Patrick Hoffman (very gracious of him) for
having a model which creates equivalent times for various distances.
Essentially I developed what several phrased as a portable Purdy
a couple years back.   I sent out about 50 copies of my model
on request - and Patrick was kind enough to post it on his site!

For those that care, I was a practicing statistician until recently,
and have a degree in the field.   I'm also a track nut, so I spent
2 months developing a time equivalency model given the top 10 times
in the world for both men and women at that time.

The downside is that the model is awful for distances 400 meters
and under.   It seems one needs a different model for sprints
than for distance events.   It also falls apart at distances
greater than the marathon, which isn't that big a deal unless
you are Yiannis Kouros (WR holder for 303K in 24 hours on a track!)

The second downside is that it was based on the top 10 times at
a given point in history.   Since then, a few runners have significantly

lowered the records for the 5000 and 10000, but the 1500 hasn't budged.
(For the men).   This tends to make Gebreselassie look awful good.

Regardless, the model worked wonders for local high school students,
and doesn't do too badly at predicting elite times.

Patrick Hoffman wrote:
>
> Looks like a New Performance Model Battle coming up !
>
> Could someone list the World records numbers in the New tables ?

Ya know, I don't have a list of the current world records...  sigh.
I'll give a little taste at the bottom of this message.
>
> Tim, sounds like you have a nice model, can we have more info ??

Tim sent me info privately - it is his call.
>
> Dave Cameron, are you out there, could you rank Tim's performances
> with your model ? (can you do the world records again?)

I'll need to look up the WRs again.   Its almost midnight, and
it took me a while to find my model as I'm on a new computer
since then.  As far as Tim's stuff, he lists field events,
which I can't do, 50K walk times (errghh.)  and a decathlon
score.    His top 5 were:

Kipketer's 1.41:11
Barmasai's 7:55.72
Komen's   12:39.74
Tergat's  26:27.85
Kiptanui's 7:56.16

I have some respect for Tim's effort to date.

Yet, I can't easily equate steeplechase times, and Geb has
knocked Komen and Tergat off that list...    Either way,
my model ranks Komen & Tergat superior to Kipketer.

Briefly, Geb's 5000 time is now the best according to my
model (although Johnson's 200 would be better if I could
extend it to 200 meters - which isn't really valid).  His
10000 time would be next.    Kipketer's time would be
in the same ballpark as the 1500 WR - a decent distance
behind the 5000 and 10000 records.

I'll try to be more thorough soon... just didn't want
to leave this hanging.

Dave Cameron